IonQ did not lose $1.87 billion running the business in the second quarter. The loss attributable to IonQ, Inc. was $1,867.7 million for the quarter ended 30 June 2026, and $1,649.1 million of that was a non-cash mark on warrant liabilities, against revenue of $80.1 million.
IonQ closed at $28.17 on Monday 2 November 2026, the last completed official daily close in the Nasdaq historical file. The stock is listed on the NYSE. The year-end bull is $34.32, the base is $21.58, and the bear is $15.84, over 41 sessions through 31 December 2026. A premarket print of $28.5784 at 8:12 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday is not the spot.
The bull finishes the year under the $40 combined price of the October offering and far under the $69.46 Series C strike. Monday is also the twelfth straight close under the $33.07 Elisity floor, while the 20-day average, $33.74, is still $0.67 above that floor. A $75 street target is a separate opinion, not this distribution.
Key facts
- IonQ closed at $28.17 on Monday 2 November 2026, down $1.87, or 6.23%, from Friday’s $30.04 close, on volume of 20,840,680 shares. Nasdaq historical file, saved 3 November 2026.
- The year-end bull is $34.32, the base is $21.58, and the bear is $15.84. That uses 41 sessions and the last 90 daily log-returns. FinanceFeeds calculation on that file, 3 November 2026.
- Second-quarter revenue was $80.1 million, up 287% from a year earlier. The attributable loss was $1,867.7 million, including a $1,649.1 million warrant-liability mark. IonQ exhibit, 5 August 2026.
- Combined full-year 2026 revenue was guided to $450 million to $460 million, including SkyWater from 31 July through 31 December, after elimination of estimated intercompany revenue. IonQ exhibit, 8 September 2026.
- The 14 October prospectus sold shares and pre-funded warrants with Series C warrants at a combined $40.00. The Series C strike is $69.46. Shares outstanding after the offering were stated at 429,407,678. Estimated net proceeds were about $1,988.5 million before warrant exercise. The 13 October sale was $34.73. Prospectus supplement, 14 October 2026.
- Elisity is an all-stock deal valued at up to $1.3 billion, including an earnout of up to $150 million. The calculation price is capped at $49.61 and floored at $33.07. Closing is expected in the fourth quarter and still needs regulatory approval. IonQ exhibit, 12 October 2026.
- The Air Force Research Laboratory awarded $7.5 million of follow-on funding on 27 October 2026 for the network in Rome, New York. IonQ said it sits inside a $21.1 million January 2025 collaboration and is not a supplemental award. IonQ, 27 October 2026.
- B. Riley kept Buy and cut its target to $75 from $100 on 2 November 2026, as reported by TradingView. That $75 is not the bull in this headline. TradingView, 2 November 2026.
What just happened, and why the loss line misleads
Monday opened at $30.12, traded between $27.93 and $30.7995, and closed at $28.17. Friday’s close was $30.04, so the drop was 6.23%. The close is $2.28 above the $25.89 low print of 30 March 2026. Nasdaq displays the 52-week range as $25.89 to $73.65. The high print was $73.65 on 3 June 2026, when the close was $68.23. From that high print, Monday is down 61.75%.
The August tables do not show an operating collapse of $1.87 billion. Revenue was $80.050 million, against $20.694 million a year earlier. Cost of revenue excluding depreciation and amortization was $60.110 million, so the margin before that line was 24.9%. Depreciation and amortization was $46.087 million. The operating loss was $337.243 million. The warrant-liability mark of $1,649.115 million was about 88.3% of the $1,867.742 million attributable loss. GAAP earnings per share were a loss of $5.08.
SkyWater closed on Friday 31 July 2026, after the quarter. IonQ closed at $36.44 that day. Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $120.275 million, of which the release assigned $24.7 million to SkyWater commercial-relationship research. Excluding it, the adjusted loss would have been $95.6 million. Adjusted earnings per share were a loss of $0.33. Cash and investments were $3.0 billion at 30 June, and $2.0 billion pro forma for the SkyWater close.
On 8 September the revenue range changed. August had guided to $280 million to $290 million, excluding SkyWater. September guided to $450 million to $460 million, including SkyWater from 31 July through 31 December after elimination of estimated intercompany revenue. The September exhibit does not publish the bridge. This piece does not invent one.
The tape since then has already crossed the pending deal’s floor. The close was $40.47 on 8 September and $40.34 on 17 September. It was $34.73 on 13 October, the sale named in the prospectus, and $34.35 on 15 October, the last close at or above $33.07. From the $31.28 close on 16 October through Monday, twelve official closes have been under that floor.
Who is exposed
October buyers paid a combined $40.00 for each share, or each pre-funded warrant, plus two Series C warrants. The prospectus is dated 14 October 2026. J.P. Morgan was the sole underwriter. Estimated net proceeds were about $1,988.5 million, excluding warrant exercise. Monday’s close is $11.83 below that $40 price, and the package was not a bare share.
Shares outstanding after the offering were 429,407,678, or 558,907,678 if the warrants are exercised in full. The sale was 20,500,000 shares, 29,500,000 pre-funded warrants at a remaining $0.0001, and 100,000,000 Series C warrants. At $28.17 those 429,407,678 shares are about $12.10 billion. The second-quarter weighted average, 367,660,636, is not the share count.
The Series C strike is $69.46 for seven years. The bull of $34.32 is about 49.4% of that strike, so exercise is outside this band. The new shares and pre-funded warrants dilute now. The 100 million Series C shares do so only if the stock later clears $69.46.
Elisity holders have the other path, and a lower price means more shares. The deal is valued at up to $1.3 billion, including an earnout of up to $150 million. The count uses a 20-trading-day volume-weighted average price, capped at $49.61 and floored at $33.07. James Winebrenner is to continue as chief executive of Elisity. Closing still needs regulatory approval. FinanceFeeds laid out the collar when the deal was announced. The new fact is the twelve closes under the floor.
The contract does not use Monday’s close or the 20-day average. If $1.15 billion of stock, the headline less the full earnout, were priced at the $33.07 floor, the illustration is about 34.77 million shares, and about 23.18 million at the $49.61 ceiling. That is collar arithmetic, not a company share count. The window has not started.
The tape next to the documents
The chart uses only the Nasdaq historical file through Monday. Daily lows stay on the top panel so the March low is inside the frame. The bottom panel keeps the bull, the base, the bear, and the closes on one scale.
| Item | Figure | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Official close | $28.17 | 2 November 2026 | Nasdaq historical file |
| Prior close | $30.04 | 30 October 2026 | Nasdaq historical file |
| 20-day average | $33.74 | through 2 November | Same file |
| 50-day average | $37.87 | through 2 November | Same file |
| Year-end bull / base / bear | $34.32 / $21.58 / $15.84 | 31 December 2026 | 41-session distribution |
| Elisity floor / ceiling | $33.07 / $49.61 | contract | Exhibit, 12 October 2026 |
| Series C strike / package price | $69.46 / $40.00 | 14 October 2026 | Prospectus supplement |
| B. Riley target | $75, from $100 | 2 November 2026 | TradingView |
| Q2 revenue / 2026 guide | $80.1 million / $450 million to $460 million | 5 August and 8 September 2026 | IonQ exhibits |
Monday is 16.5% under the 20-day average and 25.6% under the 50-day average, gaps of $5.57 and $9.70. The prior five sessions ranged from a $28.545 low to a $33.31 high. Monday’s $27.93 low undercut that low. From the 31 December 2025 close of $44.87 the stock is down 37.22%. The 2026 high close was $72.07 on 29 May, and the low close was $26.59 on 30 March.
The largest log-return in the 90-session window was 7 August, from $39.72 to $44.43, up 11.86%. That session stays in the standard deviation. An older English FinanceFeeds page used a $75 bull on the $40.34 close of 17 September. This page replaces that call. The old $75 is not this bull. From Monday’s $28.17, that street figure is about 166% higher. TradingView put the same $75 about 149.7% above the 30 October close of $30.04.
What they said
Niccolo de Masi, chairman and chief executive of IonQ, tied Elisity to security rather than to the share price. In the 12 October exhibit he said: “With Elisity and its team as part of IonQ, we will be well positioned to help customers protect critical infrastructure and enterprise networks throughout the transition to the quantum era. As I said first, Q-Day is coming much faster than predicted.”
James Winebrenner, chief executive of Elisity, said in the same exhibit: “Our customers need to prioritize post-quantum cryptography initiatives while securing existing assets to keep essential operations running.” European supervisors have raised a related point about bitcoin’s cryptography, which FinanceFeeds covered separately. Neither sentence is a 31 December price.
Jordan Shapiro, IonQ president, Quantum Platform, said in the 27 October release, and the company account posted the same sentence: “We are building quantum networking that runs on standard telecom infrastructure and through open air, and proving it on a live network.” The post is IonQ on X, 27 October 2026. The dollars on that sentence are $7.5 million, inside the earlier $21.1 million collaboration.
Inder Singh, chief operating officer and chief financial officer, said in the August exhibit: “Our second quarter 2026 revenue grew 287% year-on-year, driven by global deployments of our IonQ Tempo quantum computers, strong cloud utilization, and broad-based commercial momentum across our quantum platform.” On 8 September, de Masi said the updated guidance “highlights both the market traction of our quantum platform and the foundational manufacturing scale provided by SkyWater.” A September FinanceFeeds note on the Superion sale put related hardware revenue in late 2027, beyond these 41 sessions.
Financing is done, approval is not
The 14 October prospectus is a completed offering document. The Elisity merger is not a completed close. The exhibit expects closing in the fourth quarter of 2026, subject to customary conditions including regulatory approval. Until a closing date exists, the volume-weighted window cannot be dated, and the collar cannot be turned into a share count.
Warrant liabilities at 30 June were $3,052.4 million. Cash, short-term investments, and long-term investments were $1,235.7 million, $883.2 million, and $840.4 million, together $2,959.3 million. The liability was larger than that sum. Goodwill was $2,186.0 million. A higher share price marks the liability up, and a lower price can reverse part of it. Monday is far from the $69.46 strike, so the third-quarter mark should not repeat the second-quarter mark. That is accounting, not a cash balance.
Do not add the October proceeds to the June cash and call the sum today’s liquidity. The offering estimate was about $1,988.5 million before warrant exercise, and the SkyWater close was already described as a $2.0 billion pro forma investment balance from the June start. Spending since 30 June is not in these documents. The close path itself is $53.26 on 30 June, $36.44 on the SkyWater closing day, $40.47 on 8 September, and $28.17 on Monday.
What happens next
Thursday 5 November 2026 is the first hard date. IonQ said on 30 October that the call is at 4:30 p.m. Eastern, with de Masi and Singh. It is the first print with SkyWater inside the quarter. Management can keep the $450 million to $460 million range or cut it. The $34.32 bull is not that day’s target. The 7 August gain of 11.86% shows one session can jump outside the band.
The second date is unset. If Elisity closes in the fourth quarter and the volume-weighted window is under $33.07, the floor, not Monday’s $28.17, sets the price and the share count rises. If the window clears $33.07, the floor does not bind. Twelve closes are under the floor and the last twenty average $33.74. Neither figure is the contract price. A regulatory delay can also leave the fourth-quarter count unchanged.
The third date is the 31 December 2026 close, 41 sessions from Monday. The count skips Thanksgiving Day, 26 November, and Christmas Day, 25 December. Early closes on 27 November and 24 December still count. Persistence of the recent average log-return puts the path at $21.58. The bull needs that negative drift to fade. The bear is one standard deviation below the same drift. The $40 package, the $69.46 strike, and the $75 B. Riley figure all sit above $34.32.
Shorter paths were checked because a bull within $1 of $75, $82, or $67 is banned. Ten sessions to 16 November are $33.19 and $22.66. Fifteen sessions to 23 November are $33.83 and $21.19. Twenty sessions to 1 December are $34.20 and $19.93. None collide, so the year-end pair stays in the headline.
Bull, base, and bear
| Case | Price | Versus $28.17 | What has to be true |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $34.32 | +21.83% | Negative drift fades, and the path finishes 1.5 standard deviations above it by 31 December. That is back above the $33.07 floor and still under the $40 offering price. |
| Base | $21.58 | -23.39% | The last 90 sessions’ average log-return continues for 41 sessions. The collar floor stays above the stock, and the Series C warrants stay out of the money. |
| Bear | $15.84 | -43.77% | The same drift continues and the path finishes one standard deviation below it, under the $26.59 low close and the $25.89 low print. |
The bull is $1.25 above the Elisity floor and $5.68 under the $40 price. It does not reach the warrant strike. The base extends the average log-return from the 25 June 2026 close through 2 November. This is not financial advice. The band is not a recommendation to buy or sell IonQ, and it is not a forecast of the 5 November guidance.
How the band is built
The spot is $28.17. N is 41. Mu, the mean daily log-return, is -0.00649892. Sigma, the sample standard deviation from statistics.stdev on 90 log-returns, is 0.04828719. The base is the spot times exp(N times mu), which rounds to $21.58. The bull is the spot times exp(N times mu plus 1.5 times sigma times the square root of N), which rounds to $34.32. The bear is the spot times exp(N times mu minus 1.0 times sigma times the square root of N), which rounds to $15.84. Rounding is half-up to the cent.
A no-drift bull would be $44.79. It is not used, because the drift bull is already above the spot. A bull of $34.32 is not within $1 of $75, $82, or $67.
FAQ
What is the IonQ stock prediction into 31 December 2026?
The bull is $34.32 and the bear is $15.84. The base between them is $21.58. All three start from Monday’s official close of $28.17, use the last 90 daily log-returns, and run for 41 sessions through 31 December 2026. They are a distribution, not a bank target. B. Riley’s $75, reported on 2 November, is a separate opinion and is not the figure in the headline.
Why is the bull below the warrant strike and the October package?
The Series C warrants strike at $69.46, and the October package was priced at $40.00 for a share or a pre-funded warrant plus two of those warrants. The bull is what 41 sessions of this volatility can reach after a negative average log-return. At $34.32 it is about half of the strike and $5.68 under the combined price. Getting to $69.46 is outside this horizon. The model does not borrow a street target to close that gap.
Did the second quarter show a $1.87 billion operating collapse?
No. Revenue was $80.1 million, up 287% year over year, and the margin before depreciation on the cost-of-revenue line was 24.9%. The operating loss was $337.2 million. The attributable loss was $1,867.7 million because the warrant-liability mark was $1,649.1 million. Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $120.3 million, or $95.6 million excluding $24.7 million of SkyWater-related research spending. The GAAP line and the operating line are different facts.
Does a close under $33.07 already fix the Elisity share count?
No. Twelve official closes, from 16 October through 2 November, are under the $33.07 floor, but the last twenty closes average $33.74, which is above it. The contract uses a 20-trading-day volume-weighted price around the closing date, not Monday’s close and not this average. The floor binds only if that window prints at or under $33.07. Closing still needs regulatory approval and is expected in the fourth quarter, not guaranteed.
When is the next date that can move the story?
Thursday 5 November 2026, at 4:30 p.m. Eastern, is the third-quarter call named by IonQ. It is the first report with SkyWater inside the quarter. Management can keep the $450 million to $460 million full-year revenue range or change it. The year-end bull and bear do not update themselves to the revenue figure read out on that call. They stay a 41-session path unless the close series itself changes.
Is the $34.32 bull a price from a bank?
No. It is the upper case of a house distribution: Monday’s $28.17 close, 90 daily log-returns, a sample standard deviation, and 41 sessions to 31 December 2026. Banks that still publish figures in the $50s, $60s, or at $75 are making a different statement, usually on a longer horizon. This page reports the B. Riley cut to $75 because that note was retrieved. It does not put $75 in the title. This is not financial advice.
