A fast cloud quarter does not settle the stock. Alphabet showed that on Thursday. Google Cloud more than doubled in the third quarter, and Alphabet Class C was still down 12.68 percent at 3:06 p.m. ET, at $281.07, from Wednesday’s Nasdaq close of $321.89. Amazon walks into its own report the same afternoon with the same argument to win: that the AI bill is already turning into revenue, not only into property and equipment.
Amazon stock prediction work that starts from a street target misses the split. From the Nasdaq official close of $254.60 on Wednesday 28 October 2026, the 44 sessions through 31 December 2026 put the bull at $336.10, the base at $265.99, and the bear at $227.58. Those three prices are the last 90 daily log-returns on Amazon’s own tape. They are not an analyst average. Yahoo Finance’s one-year mean target, on the quote page fetched the same afternoon, is $332.41, which is $3.69 under the bull and a different contract. The live print does not enter the formula. At 3:06 p.m. ET on Thursday, Nasdaq showed Amazon at $245.50, down $9.10, or 3.57 percent, with the session still open and the report still ahead.
The parallel with Google is the mechanism, not the percent. Alphabet’s third-quarter release delivered revenue of $127.6 billion, up 25 percent, and Google Cloud revenue of $30.7 billion, up 103 percent. Purchases of property and equipment were $51.4 billion, and free cash flow was negative $9.1 billion. The 2026 capital-spending range stayed at $195 billion to $205 billion, and chief financial officer Anat Ashkenazi said spending is still expected to increase significantly in 2027, without a new dollar figure. Amazon’s test tonight is whether AWS can make the spending look funded by demand rather than by hope.
Quick take. The year-end bull is $336.10 and the bear is $227.58, from Wednesday’s $254.60 close. The base is only 4.5 percent above that close because the 90-day drift is almost flat. Thursday’s live discount, and Google’s 12.68 percent session, are the news. Neither one changes the distribution until a new official close exists.
Key facts
- AMZN’s official Nasdaq close on Wednesday 28 October 2026 was $254.60. At 3:06 p.m. ET on Thursday the last sale was $245.50, down 3.57 percent, with the market still open. Nasdaq.
- Bull $336.10, base $265.99, bear $227.58. Mean log-return mu is 0.00099508 and sample standard deviation sigma is 0.02351213 on the last 90 daily log-returns. N is 44 sessions through 31 December 2026. FinanceFeeds calculation on the saved Nasdaq file.
- The 20-day average is $255.17 and the 50-day average is $255.12. Wednesday’s close sits $0.57 under the first and $0.52 under the second.
- Second-quarter net sales were $200.6 billion, up 20 percent. AWS net sales were $42.2 billion, up 37 percent. Operating income was $27.5 billion. Net income of $62.6 billion, or $5.75 a share, included $53.4 billion of pre-tax other income, primarily from the Anthropic investment. Amazon second-quarter release, 30 July 2026.
- Purchases of property and equipment were $54.208 billion in the second quarter and $98.411 billion in the first half. Trailing twelve-month free cash flow was an outflow of $7.604 billion, against an inflow of $18.184 billion a year earlier. Same release, cash flow statement.
- Third-quarter guidance, as of 30 July, is net sales of $197.0 billion to $202.0 billion and operating income of $22.5 billion to $26.5 billion, against $17.4 billion of operating income in the third quarter of 2025. Same release.
- Andy Jassy said on the a16z podcast, as reported on 26 October, that even spending $220 billion this year Amazon is leaving a meaningful amount of demand on the table, that 2027 is largely sold out, and that a good chunk of 2028 is sold out. DatacenterDynamics.
- Alphabet Class C closed at $321.89 on Wednesday and traded at $281.07 at 3:06 p.m. ET on Thursday, down 12.68 percent. The FinanceFeeds Google distribution is still anchored to Tuesday’s $316.83 close.
What the Wednesday close actually prices
The spot is the last completed cash bar. Nasdaq’s historical file, fetched on Thursday while the market was open, ends on Wednesday 28 October at $254.60. The high that day was $255.36 and the low was $251.98. Volume was 34,915,860 shares. Thursday’s last sale of $245.50, the bid and the ask around it, and the day’s range of $241.24 to $249.14 are a live tape. They are not a close, and they are not the last bar on the chart.
The path uses the last 90 daily log-returns in that file. A log-return is the natural log of one official close divided by the prior official close. The mean of those 90 returns, mu, is 0.00099508. The sample standard deviation, sigma, dividing by 89, is 0.02351213. N is the count of sessions after Wednesday through Tuesday 31 December 2026. That count is 44: 29 and 30 October, the 20 November weekdays other than Thanksgiving on Thursday 26 November, and the 22 December weekdays other than Christmas on Friday 25 December. Friday 27 November and Thursday 24 December are early closes, and they count.
The arithmetic is the same one this desk has used on the large-cap tape all month. Base equals $254.60 times e to the power of 44 times 0.00099508, which is $265.99. Bull equals $254.60 times e to the power of 44 times mu plus 1.5 times sigma times the square root of 44, which is $336.10. Bear equals $254.60 times e to the power of 44 times mu minus sigma times the square root of 44, which is $227.58. The square root of 44 is 6.63325. The published prices are the cent-rounded products. Bull is 32.0 percent above the close. Base is 4.5 percent above it. Bear is 10.6 percent below it.
The 20-day average is $255.17 and the 50-day is $255.12. Wednesday’s close is $0.57 and $0.52 under them. The five sessions from 22 October ran from a $246.45 low to a $258.41 high, and the close sits inside that band. By 3:06 p.m. ET Thursday the session had traded at $241.24, which is $5.21 under that low and $13.66 above the bear. The formula does not use that print. From the 31 December 2025 close of $230.82, Wednesday is up $23.78, or 10.3 percent. It is $32.60, or 11.4 percent, under the 3 August high of $287.20. The file low is $196.00 on 17 February.
| Case | Price | Versus the $254.60 close | What has to be true |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $336.10 | +32.0 percent | The 90-day drift holds and the path finishes 1.5 standard deviations above it, without the multiple compressing. |
| Base | $265.99 | +4.5 percent | The drift compounds and the July guide is met, with spending left where Jassy put it. |
| Bear | $227.58 | -10.6 percent | The same drift, one standard deviation lower. A higher spending guide is the fundamental version of this path. |
The prior English pair was a $320.39 bull and a $210.55 bear from the 23 October close of $248.00. Both ends have moved by more than a dollar. A shorter window from a higher spot is a tighter path, not a more bullish one. This base, $265.99, is what a near-zero drift looks like six dollars higher.
Google’s AI bill is the parallel
The comparison that matters is the company that made the same argument on Wednesday night and lost it on Thursday’s tape. Google Cloud grew 103 percent to $30.7 billion. AWS, in the quarter Amazon has already reported, grew 37 percent to $42.2 billion. The slower, larger cloud business is the one that has not been repriced yet. Alphabet’s quarterly property purchases were $51.4 billion and free cash flow was negative $9.1 billion. Amazon’s second-quarter purchases were already $54.208 billion, and trailing free cash flow was an outflow of $7.604 billion at 30 June. Alphabet kept a 2026 range of $195 billion to $205 billion and said 2027 would be significantly higher without a new dollar. Jassy has named Amazon’s figure. On the a16z podcast he said the company is spending $220 billion this year.
That $220 billion is not a line in the second-quarter release. The release gives the purchases. The $220 billion is Jassy’s description of the year’s plan, reported by DatacenterDynamics from the 23 October podcast, and it matches the figure FinanceFeeds reported on 31 July when the plan moved up from about $200 billion. It is what the chief executive has said. It is not a 10-Q caption.
“Even spending $220 billion this year, we’re leaving a meaningful amount of demand on the table,” Andy Jassy, Amazon’s president and chief executive, said. He added: “Obviously, at this point ’26 is sold out. We always leave a certain amount for On Demand, and our inference service Bedrock or EC2, but ’27 is largely sold out. A good chunk of ’28 is sold out.” He also said more spending would not be a bad use of capital, and that supply constraints are not only a 2027 issue. “I think we’ll see them in different components for several years.” Memory is the component he has kept naming.
A sold-out cloud is a reason to raise the bill. A raised bill, the same week Google Cloud doubled and Class C fell 12.68 percent, is a reason to sell the equity. Both can be true. Chris Camillo wrote it at 2:35 p.m. ET: “You can be dead right about the business and still get absolutely crushed trading AI earnings right now. $AMZN could blow away every expectation tonight and get punished for raising capex to meet unprecedented demand.” The status is on X. The bull at $336.10 does not assume the market pays up for a higher plan. It assumes the recent drift survives.
What Amazon has already put on the record
The last completed quarter is the second quarter, ended 30 June 2026, reported on 30 July. Net sales were $200.6 billion, against $167.7 billion a year earlier, up 20 percent. Foreign exchange added about $0.1 billion. North America sales were $116.2 billion, up 16 percent. International sales were $42.2 billion, up 15 percent. AWS sales were $42.2 billion, up 37 percent, which Jassy called the fastest growth in 18 quarters and a $169 billion annualized run rate in the company’s highlight.
Operating income was $27.5 billion, against $19.2 billion. North America contributed $9.1 billion, international $1.7 billion, and AWS $16.6 billion, against $10.2 billion. On the rounded AWS sales figure, that profit is about 39 percent of AWS sales. Net income was $62.6 billion, or $5.75 a diluted share, against $18.2 billion, or $1.68. The release says that includes $53.4 billion of pre-tax other income, primarily from Anthropic. Strip the mark and the quarter is an operating story. The distribution in the title does not use earnings. It uses closes.
The cash statement is the Google rhyme. Operating cash was $161.403 billion for the twelve months ended 30 June 2026, against $121.137 billion. Property purchases were $173.028 billion. Net of $4.021 billion of proceeds, free cash flow is an outflow of $7.604 billion, against an inflow of $18.184 billion a year earlier. The highlight rounds those to $7.6 billion and $18.2 billion and says the change is primarily the AI investment. Inside the quarter, purchases were $54.208 billion, against $32.183 billion, and the first half was $98.411 billion, against $57.202 billion. Depreciation was $19.988 billion, against $15.227 billion. Long-term debt proceeds were $13.557 billion in the quarter and $66.998 billion in the first half.
In the release, Jassy said AWS was “growing 36.7% year-over-year in Q2,” called it “our fastest growth in 18 quarters,” and said “our AI and Chips businesses each eclipsed run rates of more than $25 billion.” Advertising, he said, grew 26 percent. The release does not put a dollar on that 26 percent, and it does not replace the cash outflow.
The guidance dated 30 July is the hurdle for tonight. Net sales of $197.0 billion to $202.0 billion, growth of 9 percent to 12 percent. Excluding Prime Day in both years, growth would be nearly 400 basis points higher. Foreign exchange was an expected drag of about 80 basis points. Operating income of $22.5 billion to $26.5 billion, against $17.4 billion a year earlier. The guide assumes no extra energy-derivative remeasurement and no new acquisition, restructuring, or settlement. The uncertainties the company wrote next to it are tariffs and trade policy, memory-chip supply, energy prices, and customer demand.
What the tape and X are pricing into the print
At 3:06 p.m. ET the two tapes were not the same trade. Class C was at $281.07, down $40.82, or 12.68 percent, range $278.29 to $286.43. Amazon was at $245.50, down $9.10, or 3.57 percent, range $241.24 to $249.14. Apply Google’s session percent to Amazon’s official close and the product is $222.32, which is $5.26 under the bear. That product is an illustration, not a second bear. Amazon’s afternoon has not done it. The stock can still do it after 4 p.m. or on Friday.
At 3:04 p.m. ET, The Option Premium wrote: “What’s missing is the spark, and the spark is $AMZN’s capex guide tonight. If it comes in like Microsoft’s, the squeeze is on. If it comes in like Google’s, the trap’s for the bulls.” The status is on X. The post does not give Microsoft’s figure. It uses the two names for the split: a spending guide the market did not punish, and one it did. A large capex number is not the event. A step-up is, which is how traders read Alphabet’s 2027 comment even without a new dollar.
Yahoo Finance’s one-year mean of $332.41 sits $77.81 above Wednesday’s close and $3.69 under the bull. The mean is a one-year analyst blend. The bull is 44 sessions of this stock’s own returns, ending 31 December. The $332.41 figure is a comparison, not the call. From 22 October’s $250.38 close the stock went $248.00, $249.09, $253.10, $254.60. Wednesday volume was 34.9 million shares. Thursday was already about 40.4 million with the session open.
What happens next
Three paths follow from numbers that exist this afternoon.
If AWS stays near the second-quarter pace and the spending description stays at $220 billion, the print looks like the base. That is $265.99, only $11.39 above Wednesday. Friday can retrace the live $9.10 discount without going near the bull. A cloud beat, by itself, did not save Alphabet.
If the guide lifts the spending figure, or Jassy describes 2027 as significantly higher and still unnumbered, that is the Google path. A 12.68 percent reaction from $254.60 lands at $222.32, through the bear. The bear itself does not require a 13 percent day. It requires the drift minus one standard deviation over the rest of the year. One gap can cover a lot of that distance.
The bull still needs the volatility term. Mu is too small to get to $336.10 on its own. The path has to finish 1.5 standard deviations above a nearly flat drift while the market keeps the multiple that sits on a $7.604 billion free-cash-flow outflow. That can happen if AWS holds 37 percent, advertising holds the 26 percent Jassy cited, and the spending line stops rising. The formula prints it. Thursday’s tape, in either stock, is not trading it.
The clock is the constraint. Yahoo’s quote page lists the earnings date as 29 October 2026 and does not mark it as an estimate. The same page shows the call as today at 5 p.m. EDT. The cash close comes first. Whatever Amazon publishes after 4 p.m. will be judged on Friday’s official bar, not on this distribution. Until that bar exists, the bull is $336.10, the base is $265.99, and the bear is $227.58.
This is not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Amazon stock prediction through 31 December 2026?
From the Nasdaq close of $254.60 on 28 October 2026, the bull is $336.10, the base is $265.99, and the bear is $227.58 over 44 sessions. It is a volatility calculation on the last 90 daily log-returns, not a bank target.
Why does Google’s AI spending matter for this Amazon print?
Google Cloud grew 103 percent and Class C was still down 12.68 percent at 3:06 p.m. ET, after $51.4 billion of property purchases and negative $9.1 billion of free cash flow. Amazon’s chief executive has described about $220 billion of spending this year. The same market has to decide whether that bill is funded.
Is $336.10 the same as the analyst target?
No. Yahoo Finance’s one-year mean target was $332.41, which is $3.69 under the bull and a different horizon. The bull is 44 sessions of Amazon’s own daily returns.
What did Amazon guide for the third quarter?
As of 30 July 2026, net sales of $197.0 billion to $202.0 billion and operating income of $22.5 billion to $26.5 billion. Growth of 9 percent to 12 percent would be nearly 400 basis points higher if Prime Day were excluded from both years. That guide has not been updated in a later release fetched for this piece.
Does Thursday’s live price change the bull and the bear?
Not until it is an official close. At 3:06 p.m. ET Nasdaq showed $245.50, down 3.57 percent, with a low of $241.24. That low is under the five-session low of $246.45. The formula still starts at $254.60. A Friday close replaces it.
When is the report?
Yahoo Finance lists 29 October 2026 and shows the earnings call as today at 5 p.m. EDT. The cash session closes before that call. The first official price that can replace Wednesday’s $254.60 is Friday’s Nasdaq close.
