Updated 7 November 2026, 09:30 GMT. Gold markets are shut for the weekend. Spot gold ended Friday 6 November at $4,045 an ounce, down 1.02 percent on the day (Rio Times closing data), and December Comex futures settled at $4,079.50, down $34 or 0.83 percent (Investing.com). The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October against about 65,000 expected, the dollar index rose 0.72 percent and CME FedWatch odds of a December rate hike climbed to roughly 77-80 percent. Gold still finished the week about 4 percent higher than the $3,875 it closed at on 30 October. Verdict: the jobs beat capped the post-election rally, and Tuesday’s October CPI report is the next test. Reference levels for the week: $3,990 below, $4,135 above.
Key facts
- Friday close: spot gold $4,045, down 1.02 percent (Rio Times, 6 November); December futures settled at $4,079.50, down 0.83 percent (Investing.com, Yahoo Finance).
- The week: spot gold closed at $3,875 on Friday 30 October (our Saturday 31 October page), so it gained about 4.4 percent on the week. Thursday’s peak was $4,134.83, the highest since 22 October (Reuters price table via Discovery Alert).
- Jobs: nonfarm payrolls rose 165,000 in October against a consensus of about 65,000, and unemployment fell to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent (Rio Times, Scotsman Guide). Our desk covered the release in US Economy Adds 165,000 Jobs as December Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise.
- The Fed: odds of a 25 basis point hike at the 8-9 December meeting rose to about 80 percent from 67 percent on Thursday (Scotsman Guide, citing CME FedWatch); other snapshots put it at 77-78 percent (Reuters and CNBC via MLQ). The Fed held rates at 3.75-4.00 percent in October with two officials voting to hike.
- Dollar and yields: the dollar index rose 0.72 percent to 102.28 and the US 10-year Treasury yield rose 3 basis points to 4.87 percent on Friday (Rio Times).
- Next: the US October CPI report is due on Tuesday 10 November at 8:30 a.m. ET (13:30 GMT), according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule.
Why gold fell on Friday
Gold went into Friday trading below Thursday’s $4,135 high after Thursday’s Wall Street sell-off forced investors to sell profitable positions, as covered on our Friday gold page. The jobs report then added a second reason. A payrolls number almost three times the forecast makes it harder for the Federal Reserve to pause, and markets moved quickly to price a December hike as the most likely outcome.
Gold pays no interest, so higher expected rates make it less attractive than cash and bonds. A stronger dollar also makes it more expensive for buyers outside the US. Both moved against gold on Friday: the dollar index gained 0.72 percent and the 10-year yield reached 4.87 percent (Rio Times). Stocks recovered at the same time, with the S&P 500 up 0.31 percent to 7,377 and the VIX volatility index down 9.01 percent to 25.64, which reduced demand for safe-haven assets.
The loss was modest in context. Gold was below $4,000 on Tuesday, before the midterm election results, and is still about 26.6 percent below its record high of $5,513 from 28 January (Rio Times).
The week ahead: CPI on Tuesday
The October CPI report on Tuesday 10 November is the main event for gold this week. After the jobs data, an inflation reading at or above expectations would support the case for a December hike and could push gold back towards $4,000. A softer reading would weaken that case, and it would probably need to be clearly soft, since the labour market is no longer giving the Fed a reason to wait.
Oil is the other factor. Brent fell more than 16 percent this week on hopes of a US-Iran deal (CNBC), which reduces one source of inflation pressure. If talks stall and oil rebounds towards $100, that pressure returns. Our Brent week-ahead page covers that side.
Bank forecasts are still above the current price but have come down. Goldman Sachs cut its end-2026 gold forecast to $4,150 from $4,650 on Thursday, and Citi’s 0-3 month target is $4,500 (Reuters, 5 November).
Levels to watch
InvestingLive noted that buyers have been defending the $4,040 area, which gold briefly dropped under on Friday when it traded near $4,035. FXEmpire’s Arslan Ali put support at $4,021.95 and $3,991.58 and resistance at $4,051.45 and $4,088.51 (FXEmpire, 6 November). Above that, Thursday’s high of $4,134.83 is the next reference.
Gold this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Gold | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $3,990 | October CPI comes in hot, December hike odds move towards certainty and the dollar holds above 102. | FXEmpire’s second support at $3,991.58; about 1.4 percent below $4,045. |
| Base | $4,020-$4,090 | CPI is close to expectations and hike odds stay around 75-80 percent. | Between FXEmpire’s first support ($4,021.95) and its upper resistance ($4,088.51). |
| Bull | $4,135 | CPI is soft, hike odds fall and the dollar gives back Friday’s gain. | Thursday’s high of $4,134.83 (Reuters via Discovery Alert); about 2.2 percent above $4,045. |
The bear case sits below Friday’s close. These are reference levels measured from the verified Friday close, not forecasts.
What to watch this week
- Tuesday 10 November, 13:30 GMT: US October CPI (BLS).
- FedWatch: whether December hike odds stay near 80 percent or move above it after CPI.
- Dollar index: Rio Times flags the 102 area as the level to watch.
- Oil and Iran: any progress on the Iranian proposal sent through Qatar, or new tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Silver: its latest verified close was $51.72 on Thursday (Rio Times). Our Thursday silver page has the background.
Quick take: Gold closed Friday at about $4,045, down 1 percent after a strong jobs report lifted the dollar and December rate hike odds to roughly 80 percent. It still gained about 4 percent on the week. Tuesday’s CPI report sets the direction: $3,990 if inflation runs hot, a return to Thursday’s $4,135 high if it is soft.
FAQ
What is the gold price today?
Gold markets are closed on Saturday. Spot gold ended Friday 6 November at $4,045 an ounce, down 1.02 percent (Rio Times), and December futures settled at $4,079.50 (Investing.com). Trading resumes on Sunday evening US time.
Why did gold go down on Friday?
The US added 165,000 jobs in October against about 65,000 expected. That raised the odds of a December Fed rate hike, pushed the dollar index up 0.72 percent and lifted the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.87 percent, all of which weigh on gold.
Did gold rise this week?
Yes. Spot gold closed at $3,875 on 30 October and at $4,045 on 6 November, a gain of about 4.4 percent, after reaching $4,134.83 on Thursday.
When is the next CPI report?
The October CPI report is due on Tuesday 10 November 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET (13:30 GMT), according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule.
What are the odds of a December Fed rate hike?
After the jobs report, CME FedWatch showed roughly 77-80 percent odds of a 25 basis point hike at the 8-9 December meeting, depending on the snapshot (Scotsman Guide; Reuters and CNBC via MLQ).
What are the key gold levels this week?
Support at $4,021.95 and $3,991.58, resistance at $4,051.45 and $4,088.51 (FXEmpire). Thursday’s high was $4,134.83.
What do banks expect for gold?
Goldman Sachs cut its end-2026 forecast to $4,150 from $4,650, and Citi has $4,500 for the next three months (Reuters). Forecasts change often and are not guarantees.
Sources: Rio Times, 6 November (spot close, dollar index, 10-year yield, S&P 500, VIX, silver close, record high, payrolls and unemployment); Investing.com and Yahoo Finance, 6 November (December futures settlement); Scotsman Guide and MLQ, 6 November (FedWatch odds, citing CME, Reuters and CNBC); Bureau of Labor Statistics release schedule (CPI date); InvestingLive and FXEmpire, 6 November (chart levels); Reuters via Business Recorder and Discovery Alert, 5-6 November (Thursday high, Goldman and Citi forecasts); CNBC, 6 November (Brent weekly move).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
