Updated 12 November 2026, 13:10 GMT, after Q3 results. Nebius (NBIS) traded at $135.86 in US premarket trading, down 12.2 percent from Wednesday’s $154.69 close (Yahoo Finance quote), after Q3 revenue of $980.8 million beat estimates but the 2026 sales outlook was cut to the low end of its range and capex guidance rose (CNBC). Verdict: the beat is clear, but the market is reacting to the guidance and the spending plan. Reference levels: $155 above, $120 below.
Key facts
- Q3 revenue: $980.8 million, up 571 percent from $146.1 million a year earlier, against a consensus of $907.5 million (LSEG, via CNBC).
- Adjusted EBITDA: $465.8 million, against a loss of $5.2 million a year earlier; a margin of about 47.5 percent.
- Net loss: $37.5 million from continuing operations, or 13 cents per share, against $119.6 million (50 cents) a year earlier. Adjusted net income was $90.9 million.
- 2026 revenue outlook: the low end of the $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion range; FactSet consensus was $3.35 billion (CNBC).
- 2027 revenue outlook: $12 billion to $13 billion, against FactSet consensus of $12.09 billion.
- Capex: about $27 billion for 2026, up from $20 billion to $25 billion, and $40 billion to $45 billion for 2027, against FactSet estimates of $23.85 billion and $28.77 billion (CNBC).
- Stock: $135.86 at 8:09 a.m. ET, down 12.2 percent from $154.69. Wednesday’s 15.4 percent gain from $134.00 is almost fully reversed (Yahoo Finance).
What Nebius reported
Nebius released Q3 2026 results before the US open on Thursday, with a call at 8 a.m. ET. Revenue rose to $980.8 million, up 571 percent from a year earlier. Against the $582.3 million Nebius reported for Q2 in August, revenue rose about 68 percent quarter on quarter. Analysts had expected $907.5 million, according to LSEG data cited by CNBC; Investing.com cited $907.2 million.
Profit improved sharply. Operating income turned positive at $50.4 million, against a loss of $130.2 million a year earlier, and adjusted EBITDA was $465.8 million (company release via StockTitan). The net loss from continuing operations narrowed to $37.5 million, or 13 cents per share. Analysts had expected a loss of 63 cents (Investing.com) or 69 cents (LSEG, via CNBC); CNBC noted it was not clear whether the figures were comparable.
The balance sheet shows how quickly the build-out is growing. Capital spending was $7.3 billion in the quarter, up 664 percent, and $15.4 billion over nine months. Nebius raised $5.75 billion in convertible notes during the quarter and ended September with $7.43 billion in cash. Deferred revenue, mostly customer prepayments, stood at about $9.4 billion. “We are building the full-stack platform for developers and companies to take charge of their AI future,” founder and CEO Arkady Volozh said (Investing.com).
Why the stock is falling after a beat
Two parts of the outlook explain the reaction. The first is 2026 revenue. Nebius now expects the low end of its $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion range, against a FactSet consensus of $3.35 billion. Nine-month revenue is $1.96 billion, so $3.0 billion implies Q4 revenue of about $1.04 billion. That is only about 6 percent above Q3 (our calculation from company figures).
The second is spending. Capex guidance for 2026 rose to about $27 billion, and the first 2027 figure is $40 billion to $45 billion, against analyst estimates near $29 billion. The 2027 revenue outlook of $12 billion to $13 billion is above consensus. But the market is focused on how a build-out of that size will be financed, through debt or new shares. Seeking Alpha reported that the shares first rose 2 percent premarket and then fell 8 percent. By 8:09 a.m. ET the drop was 12.2 percent.
The stock had run up into the print. Nebius rose 15.4 percent on Wednesday in the rally that followed CoreWeave’s results; our CoreWeave page covers that report. This morning’s quote is close to Tuesday’s $134.00 close, so the move so far mostly reverses Wednesday’s gain. Our pre-results preview from 8 November set the levels going into the report.
The Nvidia link
Nvidia is a Nebius shareholder. It held about $329 million of Nebius stock at the end of June, according to a 13F filing cited by CNBC. AI stocks were also under pressure before the open after the Wall Street Journal reported that Nvidia’s board is preparing to remove CEO Jensen Huang. Our Nvidia stock page follows that story. Cerebras, which reports tonight, was also lower premarket; our Cerebras preview has the levels.
Nebius stock: bull, base and bear from here
| Scenario | NBIS | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $120 | The market focuses on the $40 billion to $45 billion 2027 capex and the risk of new shares or debt, and AI stocks stay weak on the Nvidia news. | About 12 percent below this morning’s $135.86, below the $129.49 price in our 8 November preview. |
| Base | $130-$145 | The stock holds Tuesday’s level as investors weigh the 2027 revenue outlook against the spending plan. | Tuesday’s $134.00 close and the premarket range. |
| Bull | $155 | The call shows the 2027 outlook is backed by contracts and the capex can be financed without heavy dilution. | Wednesday’s $154.69 close, about 14 percent above this morning’s price. |
The bear case sits below the current price. These are reference levels measured from this morning’s premarket quote. They are not forecasts.
What to watch
- The regular session: whether the stock holds near Tuesday’s $134.00 close once trading opens at 14:30 GMT.
- Financing: any detail on how Nebius will fund $27 billion of capex this year and $40 billion to $45 billion next year.
- Q4 revenue: the low end of the 2026 range implies only modest growth from Q3, so watch for comments on when new capacity starts to earn revenue.
- Analyst updates: no target changes had been published at the time of writing.
- 17 November: Nvidia’s results, the next big reading on AI infrastructure demand.
Quick take: Nebius beat Q3 forecasts with $980.8 million of revenue and $465.8 million of adjusted EBITDA. But it cut its 2026 outlook to the low end of the range and guided capex well above estimates. The stock is down 12.2 percent premarket at $135.86, back near Tuesday’s close. $155 is the level that would erase the drop, and $120 the next level below.
FAQ
Did Nebius beat earnings?
Yes. Q3 revenue of $980.8 million beat the $907.5 million consensus (LSEG), and the 13-cent loss per share was smaller than the 63 to 69 cents analysts expected, though CNBC noted the figures may not be comparable.
Why is Nebius stock down today?
Nebius guided 2026 revenue to the low end of its $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion range and raised capex guidance to about $27 billion for 2026 and $40 billion to $45 billion for 2027, well above estimates. The stock had also risen 15.4 percent on Wednesday.
What is Nebius’ stock price today?
NBIS traded at $135.86 in premarket trading at 8:09 a.m. ET on 12 November, down 12.2 percent from Wednesday’s $154.69 close (Yahoo Finance).
What is Nebius’ revenue guidance?
The low end of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion for 2026, and $12 billion to $13 billion for 2027, according to CNBC.
How much will Nebius spend on capex?
About $27 billion in 2026, up from earlier guidance of $20 billion to $25 billion, and $40 billion to $45 billion in 2027 (CNBC).
Is Nvidia an investor in Nebius?
Yes. Nvidia held about $329 million of Nebius shares at the end of June, according to a 13F filing cited by CNBC.
Sources: Nebius Q3 2026 results release, 12 November, via StockTitan (revenue, EBITDA, net loss, operating income, capex, cash, convertible notes, deferred revenue); CNBC, 12 November (consensus, guidance, capex, FactSet estimates, Nvidia stake); Investing.com, 12 November (consensus, CEO quote); Seeking Alpha, 12 November (premarket reversal); Yahoo Finance quote data, 12 November, 13:09 GMT (premarket price, Wednesday and Tuesday closes); Nebius Q2 results, 20 August (Q2 revenue).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Stock prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
